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13/ 2 / 2013 - February

Market Review By TraderXP

Google Inc. closed at a record high after reporting earnings last week that exceeded estimates, lifting investor sentiment about growth prospects.
Google is benefiting from growing demand as marketers seek to advertise on mobile devices and local services, areas where rivals such as Facebook Inc. and Groupon Inc. also sell advertising.
"In all areas of growth of online advertising, Google has a great presence", Sameet Sinha, an analyst at B & Riley Co, said in an interview. "Instead of choosing the best horse, but someone execution on all fronts."
Google Sinha prices to buy and does not own shares.

 


Market News

"Great Rotation" - Wall Street story?
All jubilant story of Wall Street is that the peak in the stock of small investors has caused "great turn" out of bonds into shares, and that will power the bull market to new heights.
It sounds good, but there is a catch: the evidence for this is a few weeks bull fund flows, which can hardly unusual for January.
Late stage of the bull market, usually marked influx of small investors late to the party - for example, when your server starts to give you tips stock. For that to happen you need a good story. "Great Turn", with its monumental tone, is the perfect story to make you feel that you are losing.
Even if something is approaching the "big spin" has already begun, it is not necessarily bullish for markets. Those who think that they come early to the party can actually bearriving late.
Investors pumped $ 20.7 billion in shares during the first four weeks of the year, the strongest four-week run since April 2000, according to Lipper. But this pales in comparison to 410 billion dollars pulled from these funds since the beginning of 2008.
"I'm not sure what you want to take a couple of weeks, and extrapolate it into any trend you want," said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup. "We've had cases where capital flows have picked up in the last two, three, four years, when the markets picked up. They did not signal the continuation of this trend."
S & P 500 rose by 5 percent in January, its best month since October 2011 and its best January since 1997, managing the assumption that retail investors have been flooding back into the stock market.
Heading into another busy week of income, stock market, knocking on the door all time highs due to the positive sentiment in the stock, and that can not be ignored completely. 500 Index Standard & Poor week ended about 4 percent from the record touched in October 2007.
Next week will bring results insurers Allstate and Hartford, as well as Walt Disney, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Visa.
But the comparison of flows in January, seasonally strong month for the stock market shows that in January this year, while strong, is not that unusual. In January 2011, investors moved $ 23.9 billion in equity and $ 28.6 billion in 2006, but foreshadowed the massive influx of the rest this year. In addition, in 2006 the market grew by more than 13 percent, and in 2011 it was flat.
Strong inflow in January can occur for a number of reasons. There were a lot of special dividends issued Decemberthat need reinvestment, and some of the funds raised in the December tax sellingalso find their way back into the market.
At the height of technology bubble in 2000, when retail investors were really covers shares, a staggering $ 42.7 billion flowed into stock in January of this year, twice the amount that flowed in January this year. This will not end well, because the stocks peaked in March of that year, before falling in the next two-plus years.
Mom and Pop still wary
Arguing against the "great turn" is not necessarily a bearish argument against shares. Stock market did well, because the crisis. Despite the huge outflow, S & P 500 rose morethan 120 percent from March 2009 to the gradual improvement in the economy and corporate profits.
This earnings season, most of the S & P 500 companies beat earnings forecast. This also applies to income, which is a departure from the previous two reporting periods whereless than 50 percent of companies beat earnings expectations, according to Thomson Reuters.
Meanwhile, those on the front lines say mom and pop investors still wary of stocks after the financial crisis.
"A lot of people I talk to are very reluctant to emotional commitment to the stock market, regardless of income and work in January, I think it is still the case," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Columbia Management Advisors in Boston where it helps to control $ 571 billion.
Joy, speaking at a conference in Phoenix, said the majority of people asking him about the "great revolution" is a fund management industry insiders, who are interested in additional business flows, stock market investors will bring.
He also noted that the flows in bond funds were positive in January, hardly an indication of rotation.
Levkovich Citi also maintains that bondinvestors unlikely to give up the 30-year rally in bonds so quickly. He said he reserves only started seeing consistent flow of 26 months after the technology bubble burst in March 2000. By reading it may be another year before a serious rotation begins.
In addition, significant flows continue to make its way into bonds, even if it is not low-yielding government debt. January 2013 was the second best January on record for issuing UShigh-grade debt, with $ 111.725 billion issued during the month, in accordance with the International Financial Review.
Bill Gross, who manages $ 285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the largest bond fund in the world, Twitter said on Thursday that the "January flows to show some signs of Pimco bond / stock rotation," adding that cash and currency markets can be a source capital inflows into equity.
Indeed, the evidence suggests some of the money that went into stock funds in January came from the money markets after aperiod in December when investors are concerned about the budget uncertainty in Washington, began parking money at the end of 2012.
IMoneyNet data shows investors put $ 123 billion into money market funds in the last two months of the year. For two weeks in January, investors withdrew $ 31.45 billion, the most since March 2012. But at the end of the month money actually flowed back. Reuters.com


Currencies

Eurobroadly stronger U.S. dollar for yen after jobs data
Euro hit 14-month high against the U.S. dollar and a 33-month high against the yen on Friday, the beneficiary ofstronger, than expected euro zone manufacturing data and expectations of loose monetary policy from Washington and Tokyo.
Friday data on employment in the U.S. confirmed expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its catalytic monetary policy, resulting in the dollar less desirable.
Rate, the Bank of Japan will weaken monetary policy prolonged recession yen, putting it on a 2-1/2-year low against the U.S. dollar.
"The euro was bid last month to reduce the tail risk in the euro area and the reduction of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank is pushing short-term rates are higher as a result. Everywhere else people are printing money, so that on a relative basis, the ECB is hard," said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist at CitiFX in New York.
The rally in U.S. stocks added to the momentum, as investors shed shelter the Japanese currency, and, despite its modest economic growth in the euro made more attractive on a relative basis.
The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent. However, employment growth in the previous two months were revised higher.
"According to recent reports, a large mixture to increase the" risk on "trade, with a strong payroll data showing the growth of the base has been reliable in the financial cliff," said Alan Ruskin, head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York. "Growth in unemployment should (be) more friendly to all transactions that were terrible early withdrawal of Fed QE.
"All in all, nothing to detract from FX long the euro." He added that the data must also weigh on the dollar, except for the dollar / yen.
The euro rose to $ 1.3711, the strongest since mid-November 2011. It was last at $ 1.3643, up 0.48 percent on the day. On the week, the euro was about 1.4 percent against the dollar.
Next up are visible target at $ 1.3833-35, 61.8 per cent retracement of the move down from May 2011 to July 2012, which also coincides with the July 2011 low. Break this area opens the door to an increase to $ 1.40.
"The main takeaway from the report job is that there are no major acceleration or deterioration in the labor market, so that keeps the Fed firmly on hold," said Kathy Lien, director of BK Asset Management in New York.
Fed repeated on Wednesday that it will keep overnight rates near zero until the unemployment rate hit 6.5 percent until inflation does not threaten more than 2.5 percent.
Fed purchases of bonds and loose monetary policies put pressure on the dollar, and analysts say that the dollar will maintain a negative bias as long as the U.S. central bank continues on this path.
YEN pounded
The dollar rose 1 percent to 92.70 yen, near the session high of 92.96 yen in late New York trade. This is the best level of the dollar against the yen since May 2010. For the week the dollar rose by 2 percent, and after 12 consecutive weeks of income is up 16.6 percent for the Japanese currency.
The dollar extended gains against the yen after U.S. data showed the growth rate of industrial production picked up in January to its highest level in nine months, while consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in January.
Selling the yen has sided bets, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heaping relentless pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy aggressively to shake the economy out of a decade malaise.
The euro rose higher than 126.96 yen, the best level since April 2010, and was the last to 1.81 per cent in the 126.75 yen.
News that the banks will pay less than expected in the European Central Bank three-year loans next week, some dented demand for the euro, but the loss werelimited optimism the worst of the region's debt crisis is over.
Earlier Index survey of purchasing managers in the euro area showed factories had their most stable in a month for almost a year in January, helped the firm of German manufacture.
The euro rose to a 15-month high against the pound, an increase of 1.5 percent to 0.8692 pence which marked bestsingle-day gain since October 2009.
CitiFX Anderson noted the growth was caused by both the euro zone manufacturing data and testimony next Thursday incoming head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament.
If Carney stands for the inflation target range of 1 to 3 percent, rather than rigid 2 percent target at the moment, that the Bank of England would have more room to ease monetary policy and humiliate the pound.
"The Bank of England has a bad reputation for sticking to its inflation. If he says that, in favor of the 1 to 3 percent range, which could lead to more euro / sterling purchase. He disappeared on the moon already, but he can now go to the Sun" Anderson said. Reuters.com

 

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