26 / 11 / 2012 - November

Market Review By TraderXP

Egyptian stocks headed for the biggest drop since the uprising began last year, clashes broke out as a response to the decree of President Mohamed Mursi the provision of broad powers.

 

 

EGX 30 Index (EGX30) fell by 9.5 per cent (!), Preparing for the biggest drop since January 27, 2011, at 4,920.82 at 12:53 pm in Cairo, trimming this year's gain to 36 percent.


Market News

Wall Street Week Ahead: Political disputes pinch nerves market
Volatility is the name of the game.
In the S & P 500 above 1400 earnings after five days, traders will be hard not to cash in on the advance at the first sign of trouble during the negotiations of the tax increases and spending cuts, which resume next week in Washington.
U.S. President Barack Obama and the leaders of Congress, are expected to discuss ways to reduce the budget deficit and avoid the "financial cliff" automatic tax increases and spending cuts in 2013, which can disrupt the economy into recession.
As politicians are doing their job, the markets may react to wild fluctuations.
Index CBOE Volatility, known as the VIX, a favorite barometer of Wall Street market anxietythat usually moves in the opposite relationship with S & P 500, along-term decline from the 200-day moving average at the lowest level in five years. VIX may spike if the deal in Washington are beginning to slow.
"If a financial cliff is, a lot of major assets to short-term decline due to the factor of fear and chaos factor," said Yu-Dee Chang, chief trader and the only major investment ACE in Virginia.
"So whatever you are, you will lose money if you are going long VIX and short the market." Up risk "is any big deal, but then the market is going crazy."
He put the odds of the economy going over the cliff, only about 5 percent.
Many would agree themarket will be a kind agreement, which will fuel the rally, but the road will not be complete political landmines, as Democrats and Republicans to gain a foothold on the position of the defense during the last presidential election.
Liberals want to raise taxes on wealthy Americans, protecting the progressive achievements in health care, while the Conservatives make a case for deep cuts in programs for the poor and the expansion of the tax base to increase revenues without raising tax rates.
"Both sides will raise interest rates and pressure on the opposite side, so themarket will feel much more interested in," said Tim Leach, chief investment officer of U.S. Bank Wealth Management in San Francisco.
"The administration is feeling very confident at this point, or a little more than a Republican Congress can feel," he said. "But that's balanced power Congress so neither side may feel that they can act with impunity."
Middle East and Europe
Tensions in the Middle East and the unresolved negotiations in Europe over aid to Greece can add theuncertainty and volatility on Wall Street can surge, analysts said.
Egypt mediated a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas went into effect late Wednesday after a week of the conflict, but it was broken when fired from the Palestinian people by Israeli soldiers, according to Minister of Foreign Affairs of Palestine.
Backed by awards from around the world for the mediation truce, Egyptian PresidentMohamed Mursi assumed wide powers, angering opponents and promptingviolent clashes in central Cairo and other cities on Friday.
"Those types of potential large-scale conflicts, of course, can suppress some of the fundamental data at home," said Leach, U.S. Bank.
"We're trying to have in mind the idea that there are many factors that are likely to contribute to increased volatility."
On the brighter note for the markets, Greece's finance minister said the International Monetary Fund cut its debt relaxed target for Greece, and the gap to only $ 13 billion remains to be filled on the vital contribution of aid paid.
However, the deal was struck, and Greece are increasingly frustrated at his creditors still squabbling over a deal to open fresh assistance, although Athens pushed through unpopular austerity reductions.
Housing data may confirm RECOVERY
Next week, heavy on economic data, especially on the front of the case. Some rooms have been affected SuperStorm Sandy, which hit the east coast of the U.S., more than three weeks ago, killing more than 100 people in the United States alone, and leaving billions of dollars in damages.
Housingdata, however, may continue to confirm the recovery in the sector, which is seen as a necessary step to unlock the costs and reduce stubbornly high unemployment.
S & P on Tuesday / Case-Shiller home price index for September is expected to show theeighth consecutive month of increases, expanding the long continuous lines of income, as the prices were increased by the tax credit for home buyers in 2009 and 2010.
New home sales for October, due on Wednesday, and in October Pending Home Sales data due on Thursday, are also expected to show a stronger housing market.
Other key findings include the following week, durable goods orders for October and consumer confidence for November on Tuesday and Chicago purchasing managers' index on Friday.
In Friday'sclose, S & P 500 wrapped up its second best week of the year with a 3.6 percent gain. Encouraging economic data next week could confirm that, regardless of the ups and downs that could bring a financial cliff, market fundamentals are solid.
Jeff Morris, head of U.S. equity investment in a standard life in Boston, said that "this kind of noise is" in terms of whether the market had "a few days up or down. He made some strong growth during the year, housing recovery come into view and that's what the underlying market at these levels.
"I would caution against reading too much in the next few days." Reuters.com

Global stocks, euro rise on hopes of Greek, German data
World stocks and the euro on Friday were signs of progress in the negotiations for the release of aid to Greece after the influential German sentiment survey foundbusiness been improved in Europe's largest economy.
U.S. stocks rose for a day afifth, getting a lift from the leading technology stocks such as Intel and Microsoft, and about 2 percent. Index of semiconductor shares gained 1.8 percent, while the S & P information technology sector index rose 1.6 percent.
Trading on Wall Street ended early after markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. With many investors still on holiday on Friday, the volume was low. About 2.8 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, compared with the daily average for the year to date is $ 6.5 billion.
Light volume exacerbated moves, and the shares of large cap technology companies rose as investors took advantage of the upward momentum of the day to add to their positions.
"Anyone who was on the side waiting for rollback, like the one we have just some technology names, they are looking for any glimpse of the strong influence of the price for" permission "to enter into these (stock)," said Todd Salamone, director of research Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio
Microsoft helped to lift Nasdaq, receiving 2.8 percent to $ 27.70, while Apple Inc rose 1.7 percent to $ 571.50.
From mid-September to mid-November, S & P technology sector shed about 13 percent in the broader market also fell.
Studies InMotion rose on optimism about its soon-to-be running BlackBerry 10 devices that will compete against Apple's iPhone and Android-based smartphones. RIM was up 13.6 percent at $ 11.66.
Friday alsomarked start the holiday shopping season and gave investors a reason to dig up shares of retailers on hopes that consumers will spend to go in droves.
Index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.79 points, or 1.35 percent, to 13,009.68. 500 Index Standard & Poor was up 18.10 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,409.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 40.30 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,966.85.
For the week Dow rose 3.3 percent, S & P 500 rose 3.6 percent, while the Nasdaq gained 4 percent.
European stocks posted their best weekly gain this year, after rising for the fifth day on Friday. FTSEurofirst-300 index of European shares rose 0.6 percent to end at 1,110.45.
BASF and Bayer in Germany have led a rally in chemical stocks after German business morale index surprised to the first increase in seven months, bringing the prospect that Europe's largest economy may regain some momentum.
Also helping the market, confidence in the global economic outlook has received a big boost from the HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index in China, which points to the expansion of after seven consecutive quarters of decline.
Chinesedata followed by a report on Wednesday showing U.S. manufacturing grew in November at its fastest pace in five months, indicating a high rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter.
The euro rose to $ 1.2943 according to Reuters, breaking above resistance at $ 1.2910, its 55-day moving average. It was last trading at $ 1.2941, up 0.5 percent on the day.
Against theyen, the euro also hit a seven-month high 106.73 yen and was the last of 106.65 yen, up 0.4 percent.
MSCI world stock index rose 1.1 per cent on Friday at 329.92 points. Earlier MSCI'sbroadest Index Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7 percent weekly gain of 2.6 percent, and its best week in two months.
Optimism about the deal to help Greece, hopes that the U.S. lawmakers can agree on a solution to prevent the financial crisis, as well as data showing improved global economic outlook have driven a rally in risky asset markets this week.
Greece said that the International Monetary Fund reduced its target for cutting the debt of the country, offering creditors were close to a deal on a vital tranche of aid to be paid. But other sources involved in the talks, warned that the funding gap was much bigger than Greece offered.
"While we do not wish to downplay the problem of reaching agreement on Greece, the news has described some of the remaining obstacles, technical and legal, and thus, the obstacles to the transaction do not seem insurmountable," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo in New York .
Eurozone finance ministers, the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB) not earlier this week to agree on how to get the country's debt to a sustainable level. They will make a third attempt to address the issue on Monday.
Prices in U.S. government debt mostly dipped Friday in light trading post Thanksgiving holiday. Asylum appeal bond disappeared as investors scooped up stocks.
10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 4/32, exit at 1.6917 percent.
Gold and oil GAIN
In commodities, gold rose above $ 1,750 an ounce for the first time in more than a month on Friday, with 1.3 per cent, as the weakness of the dollar and the related purchase option by a technical breakthrough.
Oil rose above $ 111 a barrel on Friday as better than expected data of German business sentiment helped ease concerns about demand in the economies of the euro zone, the euro's appreciation against the dollar, while fresh protests broke out in Egypt, and the problem led tosupply.
Brent futures rose 85 cents to $ 111.40 a barrel on the 17,34 GMT. U.S. crude was 92 cents to $ 88.32. The U.S. market, which was closed on Thursday for the holiday of Thanksgiving, will not issue a formal estimate of the price by Friday.
On Thursday, Israel began withdrawing his army, which was ready to invade Gaza in search of militants who fired rockets into Israel.
Although the sector of fire is observed, there was violence in Egypt. TahrirSquare In Cairo, thousands of people took part in a demonstration against President Mohamed Mursi. Police fired tear gas into the crowd to try to pay it. Reuters.com


Market events

Monday, November 26
10:30 AM ET Dallas Fed Mfg review

Tuesday, November 27
8:30 AM ET Orders for durable goods
9:00 AM ET S & P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, 28 November
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Thursday, November 29
8:30 AM ET GDP
8:30 AM ET Unemployment
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index

Friday, November 30
8:30 AM ET personal income and spending
9:45 AM ET Chicago PMI